The Study on Dispatch Reliability Prediction Model of Civil Aircraft

Shuanglei Chu*, 1, 2, Fei Liu1, 2, Zhiqiang Wei1, 2
1 College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
2 Tianjin Key Laboratory of Operation Programming and Safety Technology of Air Traffic Management, Tianjin 300300, China

© 2014 Chu et al

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: ( This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.


Dispatch reliability is the key parameters to reflect the overall reliability of civil aircraft, and it is also the important technical parameters needs to be considered in the original design of civil aircraft. According to the actual delay rate data of airlines, combined with the relationship between delay rate and dispatch reliability, from the perspective of civil aircraft design, author firstly puts forward that seven design parameters of the aircraft design phase, the design parameters consist of five main parameters and two auxiliary parameters, and then this paper establishes a mathematical relationship between dispatch reliability and aircraft original design parameters, the dispatch reliability of civil aircraft was predicted, prediction model is reasonable and has higher precision accuracy, it laid the theoretical basis and data support for dispatch reliability prediction of our country civil aircraft, meanwhile the prediction model of dispatch reliability can provide reference data for the structure design of civil aircraft.

Keywords: Civil aircraft, design parameter, dispatch reliability, reliability.